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Tensions in the Middle East surged on Monday after Iran launched a barrage of missiles at a U.S. military base in Qatar. The strikes, confirmed by both American and regional sources, came in direct retaliation for U.S. airstrikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities over the weekend. While Tehran has not confirmed further actions, signs are mounting that Iran may escalate by targeting the world’s most critical oil chokepoint — the Strait of Hormuz.
On Sunday, Iran’s parliament passed a symbolic but high-stakes resolution authorizing the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil transits daily. Although the decision requires ratification by the Supreme National Security Council, the parliamentary vote sends a pointed warning.
Economic Shockwaves: Oil Prices and Global Risks
Markets reacted swiftly to the threat. Brent crude rose 1.7% to $74.46 a barrel on Monday, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate climbed 1.5% to $72.85. Analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that any disruption to the strait could briefly drive oil prices to $110 per barrel, while Oxford Economics painted a grimmer picture — prices spiking to $130 could slash global GDP by nearly 1%.
European policymakers are especially concerned. A prolonged oil shock would likely force the European Central Bank to abandon any plans for monetary easing, exacerbating existing recessionary pressures.
Shipping Disruptions Begin as Tankers U-Turn
The Strait of Hormuz has already seen early signs of disruption. Bloomberg reported that two supertankers, Coswisdom Lake and South Loyalty, abruptly reversed course over the weekend while transiting the strait. Both vessels, each capable of carrying 2 million barrels of crude, turned south and exited the region without completing their routes.
Meanwhile, Greece’s Shipping Ministry issued an urgent advisory recommending that Greek-flagged vessels avoid the waterway and take shelter in safe ports until the situation stabilizes. Shipowners and traders worldwide are on high alert, assessing the threat level and preparing contingency plans.
Natural Gas Also at Risk: Qatar’s Exports Vulnerable
The threat extends beyond oil. Qatar, one of the largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG), ships over 77 million metric tons of LNG through the Strait of Hormuz annually — about one-fifth of the global supply. A closure would seriously disrupt LNG deliveries to Asia and Europe, likely triggering spikes in global energy prices.
Any prolonged disruption in LNG could compound inflation and energy insecurity, especially for countries that rely on LNG for heating and electricity during peak demand periods.
Strategic Calculations: High Risks for Iran
Despite the aggressive rhetoric, analysts argue that closing the Strait of Hormuz would be a desperate and self-defeating move for Tehran. “It would be suicidal for Iran’s economy,” said U.S. Vice President JD Vance at a press conference Sunday.
Moreover, such a move would provoke military pushback from the U.S. Navy and its allies, who maintain a significant presence in the region precisely to safeguard free passage through Hormuz.
