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Based on data from TradingView, Bitcoin (BTC) began this week with relatively steady price swings, trading in the area of $94,000–$95,000 after somewhat declining over the past 24 hours.
Though it seems tranquil, global macroeconomic forces and numerous significant agendas this week call for close observation of Bitcoin’s price moves. Three primary triggers highlighted by market analysts most likely to control investor mood are the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, US-China trade tensions, and US recession concerns.
Decision on Federal Reserve Interest Rates
This week focuses mostly on the expected May 7, 2025, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The FedWatch Tool indicates that there is only roughly a 5.2% likelihood of an interest rate drop, reflecting the Fed’s hawkish posture. Still, political pressure from US President Donald Trump is aggravating the matter more. Through his social media statements, Trump freely pressed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, albeit in a somewhat confrontational manner.
“All eyes are on Fed Chair Powell this week following recent pressure from Trump to cut interest rates,” noted The Kobeissi Letter in a post on X on May 4, 2025. This pressure captures a larger conflict between the White House and the central bank, particularly because of trade war-induced inflation concerns and possible economic disturbances.
Usually ahead of the FOMC, crypto specialist Michaël van de Poppe notes on X that the price drop of Bitcoin could shortly end.
For investors hoping to profit from the possible rebound, he advised the pricing range of $91,500–$92,500. “If a standard correction pattern occurs before the FOMC, a rebound could start in a few days,” he said.
According to history, choices on Fed interest rates have a notable effect on risky assets such as Bitcoin. With price rises of over 20% leading up to the interest rate decrease in December 2024, a report from TradingView (May 1, 2025) observed that forecasts of interest rate cuts have been a positive stimulus for Bitcoin in the past.
On the other hand, should the Fed keep high interest rates, selling pressure could rise, and Bitcoin would find its way back into the consolidation zone. The post-meeting news conference by Powell will be a pivotal event capable of upsetting the market.
US-China Trade Tensions: Unknown Risky Assets
Once more, trade tensions between the US and China have heated up, and this uncertainty affects the crypto market. A CoinDesk article (May 5, 2025) claims China is reviewing a White House request to start trade negotiations. Although China “wants to make a deal,” President Trump said, this upbeat attitude has not been sufficient to allay investor fears.
Under the hazy US macroeconomic environment, Nick Ruck, Director at LVRG Research, pointed out that investors cautiously treat riskier assets like cryptocurrencies. “Although Bitcoin has started to show a decoupling from the correlation with US equities, cryptocurrency prices generally are still unstable,” he said. However, Ruck is still hopeful in the long term, saying that stronger institutional adoption—including the introduction of Real World Assets (RWA) and connection with native crypto platforms—may propel Bitcoin to fresh all-time highs.
Stressing the trade war is one of the primary elements influencing Bitcoin’s volatility this week. Trump’s proposed new tariffs aggravate this uncertainty by perhaps upsetting world supply chains and raising inflation, therefore influencing the purchasing power of institutional and regular investors.
Threat of Recession and US Economic Data: Labor Data Sensitivity of Bitcoin
Apart from the FOMC, market players are eagerly awaiting the publication of the US weekly unemployment claims data on May 8, 2025, as well as the financial report from Coinbase, which is seen as a gauge of the state of the crypto sector in the US. In recent months, Bitcoin has shown great sensitivity to labour statistics. When data deviates from predictions, the price of Bitcoin sometimes swings intensely.
The most recent poll from The Kobeissi Letter (May 4, 2025) reveals that 72% of US citizens now expect a recession to strike over the next 12 months—the highest level in the past two years. These recession forecasts could reduce consumer expenditures and slow down economic growth, therefore influencing attitudes about Bitcoin and other digital assets.
Reflecting mounting concerns about an economic downturn, Goldman Sachs, in a Reuters article (April 7, 2025), increased the likelihood of a US recession from 35% to 45%. Goldman still projects, however, that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points in three straight meetings beginning June 2025, which might be a favourable impetus for Bitcoin.
Key Levels to Watch: Technical Analysis
Based on on-chain statistics from Glassnode, Bitcoin is technically in the critical zone of US$93,000–US$95,000, which is regarded as a vital threshold. With substantial inflows of Bitcoin spot ETFs supporting a “stronger foundation” for price gains, the Glassnode report (April 30, 2025) observed that Bitcoin has demonstrated upward momentum. Glassnode cautioned, meanwhile, that this strong momentum might set off a brief period of consolidation as observed in the present turbulent price swings.
Should Bitcoin fall short of US$95,000, the price runs back to the former consolidation zone at around US$90,000. Conversely, if Bitcoin can overcome the opposition of $95,000–$98,000, the route to the psychological level of $100,000 will be clear. According on-chain data, selling pressure over US$100,000 is really low, hence should that resistance be broken, there could be a quick rise.
A post on X notes that on the weekly basis, Bitcoin is still displaying weak signals. “As long as the price remains below the red line, this is just a retest or the formation of a lower high,” he said, underlining that a breakthrough of major resistance is required to confirm a bullish trend.
Price Forecast and Long-Term Viewpoint
Though most experts remain hopeful, bitcoin price forecasts for 2025 range differently. Driven by ETF inflows and more market liquidity, Cointelegraph (May 5, 2025) projects Bitcoin to reach the range of $100,000–$200,000 by the end of the year. Although this estimate is regarded as too ambitious by some analysts, Robert Kiyosaki in a post on X (April 19, 2025) even foresaw that Bitcoin may reach US$1 million by 2035.
A LiteFinance (April 28, 2025) analysis estimates that, with an average price of roughly US$113,112, the price of Bitcoin in 2025 will vary from US$108,982 to US$127,486. The key forces behind this are institutional investments and technological developments, including the Bitcoin network’s growing scalability.
Conclusion
The Fed’s interest rate decision, US-China trade tensions, and US economic data that might either boost or lower recession concerns will probably shape Bitcoin’s price movement this week. Technically, the US$95,000 level stays crucial in deciding the near term price trend. To help readers predict volatility, investors can keep an eye on trade negotiating developments, labour market data releases, and Jerome Powell’s press conference. Though macroeconomic problems still exist, institutional acceptance and more market liquidity give hope for long-term growth in Bitcoin values.
