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The crypto industry is full of surprises, especially when it seems like Bitcoin is the only thing people are talking about. But altcoins have been under a lot of pressure since early November 2025, even though BTC momentarily hit 25,000 before dropping.
A lot of these alternative assets are now in areas that have historically been turning points before big price rises. According to the research site Blockcircle, the current situation is similar to late 2020 or late 2017, when altcoins started to go up after a lengthy time of going down.
Blockcircle, which is recognized for its detailed study of on-chain data, has just put out a market report that talks about these chances.
Basel Ismail, the head analyst there, handed out a formal update in which he talked about the mix of macro, technical, and sentiment variables that might lead to a new altseason. This research gives people in Indonesia who trade altcoins like SOL or XRP a new way to deal with instability in the world.
Altcoin Index in a Historically Weak Area
Blockcircle’s altcoin index shows how well alternative assets are doing compared to Bitcoin. The index is currently trading between 0.25 and 0.29, which is known as the extreme weakening zone. In the past, we saw comparable levels in December 2020, when BTC was about to reach its high before altcoins took off, and in November 2017, when the market was getting ready for a spectacular bull run.
What does this entail for people who want to invest? This area usually signifies the end of a lot of selling pressure, when too much liquidation makes room for accumulation. Basel said that when altcoins reach this position, long-term investors start to get in because they see the low price as an opportunity.
For instance, after a comparable episode in 2020, altcoins like ETH and LINK shot up by hundreds of percent. Right now, altcoins seem to be lagging behind BTC, which is still strong around 18,000. This could mean that the market is about to turn around.
Other graphs in the Blockcircle report show this trend recurring. The support lines from 2017 and 2021 have been touched again, which might mean a bounce back if there are no additional bad news events. Indonesian traders who routinely examine altcoins on sites like Tokocrypto or Indodax may want to take this time to review their portfolios and consider entering the market in stages.
Small Cap Altcoin Capitulation
Major altcoins like ETH and BNB are still doing pretty well, while small-cap coins are going through a bigger downturn that has brought them down to a target zone of 0.08 to 0.12.
Basel calls this the capitulation area, where the market starts to get rid of weak positions and selling pressure is at its highest. In the past, this period was typically followed by experienced investors who perceived inexpensive assets as a chance to buy more aggressively.
For example, projects like AAVE or UNI fell to similar levels in 2020 before going up 10 times. Right now, small-cap altcoins like meme coins and specialty DeFi tokens are down 50–70% from their September highs. Blockcircle says that this signal doesn’t suggest that alt season is ready to start right away. Instead, it means that a lot of assets are now fairly valued after a time of excitement. This is not a time for FOMO for retail investors; it’s a moment for in-depth analysis. They should focus on projects with strong fundamentals, like those with active teams and robust communities.
Important Stablecoin Dominance
Global stablecoin domination is one of the most important numbers in the Blockcircle report. Right now, it is in the 6-7% resistance zone. This is an important element for the movement of money in crypto. If dominance doesn’t go up anymore and instead goes down to 5–6%, it might mean that people are moving from safer assets like USDT or USDC to riskier ones like altcoins.
Why does it matter? People commonly utilize stablecoins as a “parking place” for their money when the market is unstable. Because dominance is going down, investors are starting to put money into altcoins, which is causing a surge. On the other hand, a climb above 7% might keep the cautious phase going. With a total stablecoin valuation of 95 billion, this supremacy represents what people throughout the world think. In Indonesia, where USDT makes up 70% of exchange volume, this change could directly affect the liquidity of altcoins.
Basel shows the dominance chart with a projection of 5–6%, but this is only if macro forces like the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decreases confirm it. If this is accurate, it might start altseason, just like when stablecoin supremacy fell in 2021 and altcoins started to rise.
Be Careful with the Altcoin Market Scorecard
Blockcircle’s Altcoin Market Scorecard looks at things like BTC dominance, how altcoins do compared to BTC/USD, stablecoin flows, and how they relate to US stock indices. As of early November, most weekly indicators were in the neutral to bearish range, which meant that there wasn’t yet a strong positive signal.
This scorecard is like a dashboard: green means bullish, yellow means neutral, and red means bearish. Right now, BTC dominance is low (which helps altcoins), yet the flow of yellow stablecoins is steady (although not going out yet). Basel talks about two steps of confirmation: Reversal on the daily time frame, and then on the weekly. If that doesn’t happen, the cryptocurrency rise could only last a short time, like it did in October 2023.
This scorecard is helpful for Indonesian traders when it comes to timing: When red is in charge, focus on defense; when green shows up, build up. With cryptocurrencies like SOL around 40 (down 14% in the last month), this caution zone could be a good time to buy.
The Fed’s Signals and Money Availability
Outside variables are just as important: The Fed expects to stop tightening the money supply by the end of the year and move to a steady state. Blockcircle, check this out. It’s like 2016–2017, when risk assets went up because there was a lot of loose money. This normalization could ease the pressure on crypto as a whole, giving it a chance to rebound.
This isn’t a long-term bearish trend; it’s a possible base for a positive atmosphere if technical measurements get better. A Fed cut might lead to more stablecoin inflows, which could cause an altcoin comeback.
Conclusion
Blockcircle says that the downturn in altcoins in November is similar to what happened in late 2020 and 2017, with an index of 0.25–0.29 and small-cap capitulation of 0.08–0.12. Stablecoin dominance at 6–7% is very important, the scoreboard is on alert, and the Fed’s change starts a new cycle.
