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In the last few days, the crypto prediction market Polymarket has been very busy. People have bet more than $3.3 million (about Rp55.5 billion) on which project or company blockchain investigator ZachXBT will accuse of insider trading in his next report. The market, which began not long after ZachXBT hinted to a “major investigation” into one of the most profitable crypto firms, has swiftly become one of the platform’s most active events of early 2026.
ZachXBT, who is known for his in-depth investigations of on-chain scams, rug pulls, and insider manipulations, stated on X that his next report, which will come out on February 26, 2026, will be about how insiders trade. He didn’t give any specific names or other suggestions, but the lack of clarity simply made people guess and bet more.
Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market platform that lets people trade contracts on real-world outcomes with real money. It has become a good way to measure how people feel about crypto. Every stance has a financial risk, which makes the probability more grounded than just asking people what they think on social media.
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Top Contenders and Changing Odds
As of Tuesday, February 24, 2026, the market has come together around a few top candidates:
Meteora, a Solana-based liquidity protocol, is currently in the lead with a trading volume of $365,721 (about Rp6.1 billion) and an implied likelihood of about 46%. Meteora’s importance in the Solana meme currency ecosystem, especially its position in giving early liquidity to big launches, has made it a target for speculation. Community talks often bring up possible benefits of coin launches and patterns of early access.
Axiom is in second position with about a 15% chance and a volume of $289,926 (about Rp4.8 billion). People are talking about the platform because there are still arguments about centralized parts of Solana DeFi routing and fee structures.
With a volume of $359,310 (around Rp6 billion), Pump.fun has a 7% chance of winning. Even though the odds are a little lower, Pump.fun has a lot of two-way activity, which shows that traders don’t agree on the price. The launchpad has been accused of early wallet sniping and giving insiders an edge, but the team has always denied giving anyone special treatment.
The last two in the top five are Jupiter (around 8%) and MEXC (about 7%). The addition of Jupiter fits into bigger talks regarding MEV extraction and aggregator routing on Solana. MEXC has been talked about a lot on social media for possibly having an edge in meme coin marketplaces.
Since the market began, the odds have changed a lot. Axiom, Pump.Jupiter’s odds have dropped from 37% to 42%, while Meteora’s lead has continuously grown. This pattern implies that as traders look into ZachXBT’s posting history, on-chain hints, and past targets, they are slowly narrowing down their list of suspects.
Why This Market Is Important
Polymarket is one of the most dependable sentiment indicators in crypto because it has a lot of users and real money at stake. When people bet a lot of money, they have a stake in the game and are more likely to do their own research instead of just following the hype. Traders who think they can predict ZachXBT’s next move are putting up $3.3 million right now.
ZachXBT has a long history of doing accurate investigations. His reports have caused many projects to be shut down, teams to be doxxed, and police to take action. A new claim of insider trading from him has an immediate effect on his reputation and the price—often leading to significant sell-offs, liquidity withdrawals, and community outrage. So, the Polymarket odds are a crowd-sourced prediction of which project is most likely to be exposed to risk in the near future.
Possible Effects on Targeted Projects
ZachXBT names any of the top candidates:
- Meteora: One of Solana’s main liquidity providers gets attacked directly, it might cause a lot of money to leave Solana-based pools and meme coin ecosystems that depend on its infrastructure.
- If someone accused Pump.fun, the top meme coin launchpad, of something, it would probably cause a quick drop in volume and a look into the early players.
- Axiom/Jupiter: Either way, the discussion over the concerns of centralization in Solana DeFi routing and aggregator dominance would get even more heated.
- MEXC: A CEX target would make people doubt how listings are done and could cause short-term volume shifts to competitors.
Markets have already changed because of the study, even if it ends up clearing the project or focusing on something else. Since the betting market took off, tokens linked to the top Polymarket candidates have become more volatile and there has been more talk about them on social media.
ZachXBT’s Effect on the Crypto Markets
ZachXBT is becoming one of the most important independent voices in crypto investigations. His careful investigation of on-chain data has revealed several scams, rug pulls, and insider manipulations, which have often had real-world effects on the projects concerned. The excitement surrounding his reports now regularly leads to millions of dollars in prediction market volume, which shows how much the community values his work and how much money is at stake.
The present Polymarket craze is one of the best illustrations of how powerful individual researchers have gotten in generating short-term market stories. Traders are making big bets as they wait for the report to come out on February 26, 2026, even though the verdict is still unknown.
Conclusion
Polymarket’s $3.3 million betting pool on ZachXBT’s next insider trading target shows how much power the investigator has over the crypto market’s mood and prices. Meteora is in the lead right now with a 46% implied likelihood, followed by Axiom, Pump.fun, Jupiter, and MEXC. The quick narrowing of odds toward a small number of names implies that traders are putting together hints from ZachXBT’s past and activity on the blockchain.
No matter what the final study says, the market has already priced in a lot of risk for a number of well-known Solana-based protocols and platforms. As the release date of February 26 gets closer, things will probably be volatile for the next two weeks. For investors, the main point is clear: when ZachXBT talks, markets pay attention and often move before the whole narrative comes out.
