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JPMorgan Chase has gotten people’s attention with its positive Bitcoin prediction. The bank thinks the cryptocurrency might rise to $165,000 by the end of 2025, which is a 37% increase from its current level of roughly $120,000.
CoinDesk reported on October 3, 2025, that JPMorgan strategists, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, say that Bitcoin is still far less valuable than gold. They base this on a comparison that takes into account volatility and shows that BTC is currently more valuable than ever.
This isn’t just about numbers; it’s also about bigger problems in the economy, such rising inflation, budget deficits, and people losing faith in fiat currencies. These are all signs of a growing “debasement trade.” With a market cap of $2.3 trillion, JPMorgan’s call adds to an already positive chorus, with other competitors looking at $200,000. However, it also shows how Bitcoin is becoming a stable asset in a world of volatility.
The Volatility Ratio Shows That Something Is Undervalued
A revised comparison of gold and Bitcoin, employing a metric that takes into account volatility, is at the heart of JPMorgan’s theory. Bitcoin’s annualized volatility has been far higher than gold’s in the past, so investors have had to put in about three to four times as much money into BTC to get the same exposure. But by the end of September 2025, that ratio has dropped below 2.0, to 1.85, which is the tightest spread since Bitcoin started. “Bitcoin now needs only 1.85 times the risk capital of gold, which is a sign of undervaluation,” Panigirtzoglou noted.
Using this view, JPMorgan says that private gold investments through ETFs, bars, and coins are worth $6 trillion. Bitcoin’s $2.3 trillion cap means that it needs a 161% premium to attain parity, which means that each coin is worth $165,000. This changes the story from December 2024, when BTC was worth $36,000 more than its adjusted gold benchmark, to today’s $46,000 discount. The change is a result of Bitcoin’s volatility crush: The rate has dropped from 60% a year ago to less than 30% presently, thanks to things like spot ETFs and institutional custody that are getting better.
Panigirtzoglou says this is because Bitcoin has changed into “digital gold,” which makes it less risky and more appealing to conservative investors. On X, @TheCryptoDog said, “JPM’s $165K call isn’t a moonshot; it’s math.” Gold’s ATH run makes BTC appear really inexpensive. But doubters like @PeterLBrandt warn that ratios can change; a sudden rise in volatility might turn the discount around in a day.
Fears of inflation and lack of trust in fiat money stoke the fire
JPMorgan’s positive outlook fits with the “debasement trade,” which bets on fiat currencies losing value because of unregulated money creation, rising deficits, and geopolitical tensions. The main things that drive it are:
- Long-Term Inflation Risks: The U.S. CPI stays at 3.2%, while the core PCE stays at 2.8%, which is beyond the Fed’s 2% objective. This makes people worry that prices will keep falling. Emerging markets like Turkey and Argentina have inflation rates of 50% or more, which is why stablecoins are flowing in at a rate of $50 billion.
- Fiscal Deficits and Central Bank Credibility: The U.S. deficit reached $1.8 trillion in FY2025, which led to murmurs of QE. The ECB’s €500 billion bond buys are similar to what happened in 2020. Bitcoin’s 21 million ceiling stands out here, especially when compared to the unrestricted supply of cash.
- Geopolitical and Dollar Weakness: BRICS de-dollarization moves (including India’s rupee settlements), and tensions in the Middle East weaken the USD’s dominance, with the DXY down 8% YTD. Investors in emerging markets (EM) see BTC as neutral ground because they own 40% of the world’s supply.
- The story is told via cumulative ETF inflows: Bitcoin ETFs have made $28 billion since December 2024, making them the most popular investment during the “Liberation Day” rise in the first half of 2025 after Trump’s inauguration. Gold ETFs lagged behind at $15 billion until August, when they caught up with $8 billion as ordinary investors rushed in because of fears of a shutdown.Institutional flows are slow through CME futures ($20 billion OI), but JPMorgan thinks they will be equal by the fourth quarter as volatility goes down.
The fact that gold has gone up 25% this year to $2,650/oz is funny since it makes BTC stronger: “Gold’s strength shows how cheap Bitcoin is in comparison,” Panigirtzoglou said, raising the objective from $126,000 in August. This story about debasement fits with Ray Dalio’s concerns about a “big debt cycle,” which makes BTC the best hedge.
On-Chain and Market Momentum, A Bullish Background
The basics of Bitcoin support JPMorgan’s call. The number of BTC in exchange reserves dropped from 2.61 million in early September to 2.49 million—4.6%—which means that people are holding on to their coins. According to Glassnode, long-term holders own 75% of the supply (14.8 million BTC), which is the most since May. This keeps sale pressure down. “Uptober” lore—BTC’s 80% success rate with +28% averages since 2013—adds seasonal spice, magnified by derivatives: The volume of 24-hour futures rose 48.66% to $120.32 billion, open interest rose 6.27% to $85.77 billion, and options rose 61.08% to $7.4 billion. The call/put ratio was 1.2:1.
In late September, spot ETF inflows were close to $1 billion, bringing BlackRock’s IBIT to over $80 billion AUM. Vanguard’s alleged reassessment might free up trillions more. As BTC trades at $120,000, more bulls like Standard Chartered ($200,000) and VanEck ($135,000) join in, but JPMorgan’s gold parity model gives us a solid base.
Chance in a volatile market
JPMorgan’s aim of $165,000 isn’t simply a happy moment; it’s a sign that Bitcoin’s risk-reward is good in a world where money is losing value. It makes sense to put 1–2% of your portfolio in BTC (up from 0.5% in 2024), especially because gold’s rise proves that hedges work. Retail investors can use spot ETFs to get low-cost exposure, while institutions can use CME futures to get leverage.
What are the risks? A Fed turn that is hawkish or a gold cooldown might limit the upside. Keep an eye on the October NFP (delayed by the shutdown) for hints. Even so, as debasement transactions become more popular, Bitcoin’s road to $165,000 seems possible, making it digital gold 2.0.
Conclusion
JPMorgan’s brave prediction that Bitcoin will be worth $165,000 by the end of the year highlights an undervalued asset in a world where gold parity is at $6 trillion and volatility ratios are below 2.0. The rally’s reasons are all in line, from H1 ETF supremacy to Uptober mythology to safe-haven buys pushed by shutdowns.
But there are still macro wildcards like Fed cuts that could happen. This prediction isn’t hype; it’s a volatility verdict that favors bulls as BTC holds $120,000. Investors, get ready for the trade: Bitcoin’s debasement armor shines greatest when currency is around.
