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As September 2025 goes on, Bitcoin (BTC) has to deal with its famous “Red September” curse, which is a pattern of prices going down throughout this month. But market analysts are hopeful and think that prices could rise to between $115,000 and $120,000 by the end of September.
Bitcoin is holding up well since the Federal Reserve is set to make a decision about interest rates on September 17-18, 2025, and more institutions are becoming interested.
This article looks at Bitcoin’s present market conditions, the “Red September” event from the past, and the main things that could cause a bullish breakout. It gives crypto investors useful information.
Bitcoin’s Price Right Now
CoinMarketCap says that on September 3, 2025, Bitcoin rose above $112,000, hitting a high of $112,500 during Wall Street’s trading session. TradingView says that by noon on September 4, the price had gone back down to about $110,467. Bitcoin is still in a bullish support zone, even though it has dropped. The $112,000 level is a key place for liquidity.
According to CoinGlass, most of the liquidity at the $112,000 level has been used up. This could lead to a move toward $114,000. Bitcoin has stayed above its weekly low of $107,270, which means that buyers are protecting important support levels. This price movement goes along with the market’s increased confidence, which is being driven by hopes of a Federal Reserve rate cut and more institutional participation through Bitcoin spot ETFs.
The “Red September” Thing
In the past, September has been a hard month for Bitcoin. CoinGlass data shows that the cryptocurrency has lost money in eight of the twelve Septembers since 2013, with an average drop of 3.49%. This trend, called “Red September,” is sometimes connected to seasonal events like portfolio rebalancing and market corrections.
But in recent years, this trend seems to be getting weaker. Bitcoin ended September 2023 and 2024 in the black, with a big 7.29% gain in 2024. This change has given people hope that September 2025 might be the third straight positive month, which could drive Bitcoin up to $120,000. Analysts say that this development is due to changing market conditions, such as more institutional investors and positive macroeconomic trends.
Analysts say it’s a good case, but with some warnings
Fyqieh Fachrur, an analyst at Tokocrypto, is still sure that Bitcoin will do well in the near future, even though it is currently under seasonal pressure. He told Blockchainmedia.id in an email, “Bitcoin is currently testing strong support between $105,000 and $110,000.” If this range stays the same, there is very little chance that the price will drop below $100,000. In fact, there is an 87% chance that the Fed will lower rates, according to historical CME FedWatch Tool data.
People in the sector are also feeling this way. Changelly thinks that Bitcoin might hit a high of $125,869 in September 2025. CoinDCX analysts think that Bitcoin could reach $120,000 if it stays above $112,000–$115,000. Recent posts on X, like one from LN Markets, talk about short-term resistance at $112,500 and the possibility of going up to $114,000–$115,000 if that level is broken. Bitfinex analysts, on the other hand, warn that macroeconomic uncertainty could cause Bitcoin to drop below $95,000 if support levels don’t hold.
These different points of view show how important it is to be cautiously hopeful. Even while technical signs and macro variables point to an upward advance, investors who don’t want to take risks are still worried by September’s volatility.
Important Factors That Affect September’s Performance
This month, a number of things will affect the direction of Bitcoin:
- The Fed’s meeting on September 17 and 18 is very important for its policy. A rate drop, which many people thought would happen based on previous market sentiment, could make the U.S. currency weaker and riskier assets like Bitcoin stronger. In 2019 (25 bps) and 2024 (50 bps), cuts caused prices to rise, and in 2024, the easing led to a big gain.
- Weak dollar and liquidity: When monetary policy is looser, the dollar usually loses value, which pushes money into cryptocurrencies and gold. Gold’s recent record highs show that Bitcoin is becoming more and more important as a macro hedge.
- Institutional Use: Spot Bitcoin ETFs have had steady inflows, which shows that institutions are still quite interested in them. This tendency makes Bitcoin’s price more stable and helps the bullish momentum.
- Seasonal and Technical Factors: The “September effect” is still going strong, although after the August corrections, there are generally big Q4 rallies. If support stays above $100,000, it might lead to a push for $115,000–$120,000.
These factors show that macroeconomic factors could be stronger than historical seasonality, which could lead to a breakout for Bitcoin.
Historical Context: 2025 compared to other Septembers
It is easier to understand when you compare September 2025 to previous years. The Fed lowered rates by 25 basis points to 1.75–2.00% in 2019 because of trade problems and low inflation (1.7%).
Bitcoin went up a little bit as investors looked for other options. There was a 50 bps decrease to 4.75–5.00% in 2024 after strong tightening. This caused a big rise in Bitcoin as inflation fell from over 9%. The situation in 2025 is similar to that in 2024: inflation is between 3% and 3.5%, the economy is slowing down, and easing continues. Stocks are holding steady, gold is going up, and Bitcoin is making modest increases, which puts it in a good position to take advantage of risk-on attitude.
The relaxation in 2025, on the other hand, deals with real economic problems, which could make Bitcoin more appealing as a hedging and speculative asset.
In conclusion
Bitcoin’s battle against the “Red September” curse in 2025 is going to be a big deal. The cryptocurrency has a good chance of hitting $115,000 to $120,000 by the end of the month since it has solid technical support, backing from institutions, and a good macroeconomic outlook. Investors should keep a careful eye on the Fed’s decision and global market movements, though, because volatility is still a concern.
For people who love cryptocurrencies, this time shows how Bitcoin has become a popular asset class that can handle seasonal pressures and take advantage of changes in the economy as a whole. As always, it’s important to manage your risks wisely and talk to financial professionals when you need to in this ever-changing market.
