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Bitcoin found itself isolated in the crosshairs of geopolitical shock over the weekend of February 22–23, 2026, as the United States and Israel launched coordinated airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear infrastructure. Since the stock market was closed for the weekend, crypto was the only major asset class that could be traded all the time. It fell to intraday lows of $63,000 before stabilising a little higher.
BTC was trading for about $63,646 at the time of writing. This is about 4% less than it was 24 hours ago. The move erased most of the previous week’s gains and pushed Bitcoin back toward the lower boundary of its recent multi-week range. While the decline was sharp, it remained relatively contained compared with previous geopolitical risk-off episodes, and several core support levels continued to hold.
Trump’s Speech and the Announcement of the Strike
In a video address aired early Saturday, U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed the operation, saying it was a targeted effort to weaken Iran’s nuclear capabilities. He ended his speech with a direct message to the people of Iran:
“When we are finished, take over your government; it will be yours to take. This is probably your only chance for a long time. For many years, you have asked for America’s help, but you never got it.”
The remarks were interpreted by some analysts as an implicit call for regime change, adding another layer of uncertainty to an already volatile weekend. Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter summed up the issue well:
“It looks like the US and Israel are at war with Iran for the second time in eight months”
The previous confrontation in mid-2025 had triggered a sharp but short-lived risk-off move across crypto and equities. This time, the reaction has been more measured, probably because people were partly expecting things to go worse and there were no immediate problems with oil supply.
The crypto markets are moving as TradFi sleeps
Cryptocurrency became the main way to express risk sentiment over the weekend because U.S. equity futures and major forex pairs don’t trade then. According to CoinGlass statistics, Bitcoin futures and spot markets took the first wave of selling pressure, with liquidations totalling more than $250 million in the four hours after the announcement.
Long positions took the worst hit, with BTC long liquidations totalling almost $180 million at their worst. The liquidation heatmap showed that a lot of leveraged longs were clustered roughly above $65,000–$68,000. Many of these were flushed out when the price fell.
Even though people were selling, Bitcoin didn’t break through important support zones. The $60,000–$63,000 area—home to prior cycle highs from 2021 and significant on-chain demand—continued to act as a floor. Technical analysts noted that the pair was forming a potential higher low on the daily chart, though momentum remained firmly bearish below the 50-day moving average.
The macro and sentiment background
The weekend move occurred against a challenging macro environment. On Friday, the U.S. inflation report was hotter than expected, which put pressure on risk assets and lowered expectations for big Federal Reserve rate reduction in early 2026. Persistent services inflation and resilient labor-market figures have kept the central bank cautious, contributing to a stronger U.S. dollar and reduced appetite for high-beta assets like Bitcoin.
Geopolitical risk made things much more unpredictable. The U.S.-Iran escalation raised concerns about potential oil-supply disruptions, even though no immediate impact on production or shipping lanes has been reported. In the past, rising tensions in the Middle East have tended to boost gold and the dollar while hurting stocks and crypto in the short term.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stayed in the “extreme fear” range, with a rating of 9 on February 6 before rising a little. Sentiment hasn’t yet reached the same levels of capitulation that were observed during the FTX collapse or the bottom of the bear market in 2022, but it is getting close to levels that have traditionally come before reversals.
Levels of Interest to Keep an Eye On
The $60,000–$63,000 zone is where Bitcoin’s immediate downside risk is highest. This is in line with:
– The 2021 cycle high
– Big groups of on-chain volume
– The moving average over the last 200 weeks (now about $58,000–$59,000)
A decisive break below this area would open the path toward deeper supports, potentially targeting the $50,000–$55,000 region that acted as a major accumulation zone in 2023–2024. If macro conditions get worse and sentiment is very negative, analysts at Stifel have already talked about a tail-risk scenario of $38,000.
On the plus side, getting back to $70,000 would invalidate the short-term bearish structure and probably cause short covering. If the price stays above $75,000–$78,000 for a long time, it could move back toward the bulls, with the $90,000–$100,000 region as a possible target.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s drop to $63,000 over the weekend shows how unique it is as the only major risk market that trades 24 hours a day, 7 days a week during a geopolitical shock. While traditional finance was sleeping, crypto took in the first wave of risk-off sentiment, which led to rapid liquidations and a short test of crucial support.
It’s a good sign that Bitcoin stayed above the $60,000–$63,000 range, even if there wasn’t much trading on the weekend and no instant reaction from TradFi. It shows that long-term holders and institutional flows have kept the bid strong, even during the slump.
The next week will be very important. U.S. equities futures will open again on Sunday evening (U.S. time), and if the situation in Iran gets worse, people may be less willing to take risks. Conversely, de-escalation or dovish Fed commentary could stabilize sentiment and allow Bitcoin to reclaim higher levels.
The market is still in a high-risk digesting phase for now. The $60,000–$63,000 area offers the strongest historical support, while a break lower would raise the probability of deeper targets. Traders should keep a tight eye on geopolitical news, ETF movements, and how stocks react early in the week. Weekends are no longer a safe time to take a break in crypto.
Read Also: Bitcoin transaction activity slows down, but large-scale accumulation speeds up
