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4 ETF Altcoins with High Potential for SEC Approval in the US
1. Litecoin ETF
Litecoin (LTC) is currently leading the pack as the altcoin with the clearest path to SEC approval. Analysts attribute this to the fact that both the S-1 and 19b-4 filings have already been submitted and acknowledged by the SEC. Additionally, the SEC is likely to classify Litecoin as a commodity, further boosting its approval chances to an impressive 90%.
The 19b-4 form is used to propose rule changes to the SEC, while the S-1 form is a registration document required for U.S. public companies before offering new securities to the public. The momentum for a Litecoin ETF has been building steadily. On January 29, 2025, the SEC acknowledged Canary Capital’s 19b-4 filing for a spot Litecoin ETF, making it the first altcoin ETF to reach this stage.
Grayscale Investments is also making strides by seeking to convert its Grayscale Litecoin Trust (GLTC) into a spot ETF. This move aims to provide more regulated exposure to Litecoin. On February 6, 2025, the SEC accepted Grayscale’s application for review, marking a significant milestone in the approval process.
Litecoin, created in 2011 as a faster alternative to Bitcoin, uses a proof-of-work (PoW) consensus mechanism similar to Bitcoin. The SEC has set a final deadline for the Litecoin ETF approval decision on October 2, 2025. While Seyffart notes that demand for a Litecoin ETF may not match that of Bitcoin or Ethereum, he believes it remains an attractive option for fund companies with a minimum capital of $50 million.
2. Dogecoin ETF
In second place is the Dogecoin (DOGE) ETF, with a 75% chance of approval. Several digital asset management companies have already launched Dogecoin investment trusts, including Bitwise, which has submitted a Dogecoin ETF proposal to the SEC, and Grayscale.
Like Litecoin, Dogecoin is also likely to be classified as a commodity by the SEC. However, its approval chances are slightly lower due to the fact that the 19b-4 filing for a Dogecoin ETF has not yet been officially acknowledged by the SEC. Additionally, Dogecoin’s status as a meme coin, which is often seen as more speculative, could hinder its approval prospects.
The SEC has set a deadline for the Dogecoin ETF approval decision on October 18, 2025.
3. Solana ETF
The Solana (SOL) ETF is one of the first altcoin-based spot ETFs to be proposed, with momentum building after the approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in the U.S. According to Bloomberg analysts, the Solana ETF currently has a 70% chance of approval.
Several U.S. asset managers, including Grayscale, Bitwise, VanEck, 21Shares, and Canary Capital, have submitted applications for a Solana ETF since late 2024. However, Solana’s regulatory status remains a significant hurdle. The SEC has yet to clarify whether Solana should be classified as a security or a commodity. Seyffart emphasizes that regulatory clarity on Solana’s status is essential before the ETF can move forward.
The SEC has set a decision deadline for the Solana spot ETF on October 10, 2025.
4. XRP ETF
Among the proposed altcoin ETFs, the XRP ETF has the lowest chance of approval at around 65%. Despite this, it has garnered significant attention from the crypto community.
Seyffart believes that an XRP ETF is unlikely to be approved until the SEC’s legal case against Ripple is fully resolved. In August 2023, Ripple achieved a partial victory when a court ruled that XRP is not a security when traded on secondary markets. However, the SEC has appealed this decision, arguing that Ripple violated securities laws by selling XRP to retail investors.
The case was initially handled under the leadership of former SEC Chair Gary Gensler. Ripple is hopeful that under the new SEC leadership, currently headed by Mark Uyeda, the case could be revisited and potentially dismissed.
The SEC has set a decision deadline for the XRP ETF on October 17, 2025.
Regulatory Hurdles and Future Prospects
Currently, the SEC still classifies Solana and XRP as securities. However, analysts note that SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce, through the Crypto Task Force, could revisit this classification before the end of 2025. If the classification of XRP and Solana changes, the approval chances for their respective ETFs could increase significantly.
The SEC’s attention to altcoin ETF filings has grown significantly following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election on November 5, 2024. Balchunas points out that before Trump’s election, the approval chances for all altcoin ETFs, except Litecoin, were below 5%.
In addition to the four ETFs mentioned above, Seyffart and Balchunas have confirmed that Canary Capital and 21Shares have also submitted ETFs for Hedera and Polkadot, although no approval probabilities have been assigned to these yet.
Looking ahead, Seyffart predicts that more cryptocurrency ETF filings will be submitted, employing a “spaghetti cannon approach”—where multiple filings are made en masse in the hope that some will gain approval.
Conclusion
The potential approval of altcoin ETFs marks a significant milestone for the cryptocurrency industry, offering investors more regulated and accessible ways to gain exposure to digital assets. While Litecoin currently leads the race with a 90% approval chance, Dogecoin, Solana, and XRP are also strong contenders, each with its unique challenges and opportunities. As the SEC’s decision deadlines approach, the crypto community will be watching closely to see which of these altcoin ETFs will make history.